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Science of Fantasy
Science of Fantasy

Episode 4 · 2 months ago

Science of Fantasy Episode 4

ABOUT THIS EPISODE

Professor John Bush and DMIC break down week one in the NFL and give Fantasy Football players tips for preparing for week two. It's all about logic and the scientific method NOT playing with your heart that wins in Fantasy Football! 

This is Dennis Michael Sift. My welcometo the science of fantasy. Why The science of fantasy? Well, when you putthe scientific method together with two scientists, you have something a littlebit different in joining me, as he always does here on the old show,science of fantasy. It's another scientist and I got to admit folks aman even smarter than I am. Of course I do set the bar kind of low he's. Theprofessor John Bush, John Welcome back. It's gay,have you Denis You, your killer me there. YouKnow Denis Remember PhD. I know a lot about a little and you know somebodylike my grandfather was a truck driver. He knew a lot about a life. You knowanybody can do all that old stuff. You know repairing a truck engine and keepthe trailer's rolling he's smarter than mein a lot of ways. Those are the brilliant guys and let me remindeverybody that my degree on it says B S and I'mreally good so but anyway week one is in the book for the NFL and John.Before we talk about fantasy. How great was it to have NFL football back again yeah? I started with a bang on aThursday night. I've been really scared to play any kind of serious playon Thursday night, but this was a great game. I loved it and, of course, lastnight with the o t and all the things happening, it kind of goes really bookended with two Nice Games and a lot of fun stuff. You know there were someinjuries, that's never fun, but I really enjoyed this this week here andI'm glad it's going. What a fantastic week and great games since Clevelandand Kansas City was a tremendous game, my Kansas City chiefs, so I'm a fan ofon that game, but even if they had lost, I would say that was a terrific game.There was no doubt about it, but there were some other great games, includingthe Cincinnati Bangles, showing that they actually know how to play somefootball wow. Wasn't that amazing? You know they surprised me. They really curious to see if they can keep itrolling. You never know. Sometimes some teams are. You know one week flash butwe'll see I love to see close competitive games,but high scoring games for US fantasy players and I'm in one eliminatorleague this year. It's not a big money league. We only put ten bucks up andit's winter take off. I think there's like fifteen people in it. So it's ahundred and fifty bucks that's nothing to sneeze at, but I started out bypicking Houston and I got some people making fun of me for picking theHouston Texans, but they won by sixteen points, and I also found the one gamethis year that I think they might be competitive. Yeah you got lucky thenyeah it was. There was a lot of surprises from thatgame. HOUSTON. He was, they were pretty much written all for they even started,and you can't do that. Man Fl these people are in the ninety nine percent,all of athletes. You know we kind of forget about that when they do bad.Just imagine you trying to get out...

...there and do something you know I flopover the first place. So I admire all the athletes and all their their workand sacrifice and any team can, I think, has a shot at beat any other teamnotice a shot that doesn't mean. You know something crazy, but you knowHouston proved that I think Oh yeah Tyro Taylor showed Oh man. A lot of alot of teams made a mistake by not signing him, so I was very happy to seethat I've always liked that kid's game. I just think he hasn't had quite theright situation to show what he can do. He's got the absolute wrong situationthis year, but he still showed that he can get it done. So speaking of youmentioned the word, surprise yeah and that's our first topic when it comes tofantasy football this week. What was your biggest surprise of the week? Ibelieve we just talked about Houston. That, of course I mean Green Bay right.I think everybody. I was kind of pick one that wasn't obvious. Yes, Green Baywas the most surprising, but I don't know what's going on down there it justI don't know, I'm not sure I would makeany bets some Green Bay until I see what's going on. You know, there's a lot of conspiracy.People already coming out saying this: is you know something's going on beyondjust football? So I wait. I wait and let it let it play out, but the secondsurprise was Huson nd. I really appreciated Tyron Taylor and I remindfolks that before the season I had errand Rogers as the QB number elevenin both re draft and dynasty, and a lot of folks were saying, Hey. Why so low?And I pointed out the fact that despite last year being a tremendous season forAaron Rogers, if you look at the two year Dataset, he had thirty one pointtwo percent of his games where he failed to score twenty five points.That's a pretty big margin for the top quarterbacks and I was betting againsthim. Having consistency. Yes, Aaron Rogers is going to have some three andfour touchdown games. Where he's going to be really really strong, but justlike he was my value quarterback in red draft last year, when he got ignoredthis year, he was going wait too soon and I had him one spot below MisterJames Winston Winston. How crazy is that that James had a five touchdowngame, but but yeah that was great, but here's what I'm going to tell people?If you look at his stats, he got a five touchdown game in part because he had ashort field to work with on many occasions. If you look at his statsover all, they are not worthy of a top five or even a top ten fantasy output,they're going to be right there in about the eleventh thirteenth range. Ifyou just look at the raw numbers, the touchdowns put him over the top here'shere's another surprise for you, professor. I was shocked, absolutelyshocked that the Detroit Lions had forty nine fantasy points between JamalWilliams and Dandre Swift. I expected both players to be good. I expectedsomewhere in that ten to fifteen category minimum for each but hard tobelieve that against the niners who...

...were supposed to have a decent defensethat they could put up forty nine points between the two of them. That was a great game. I've just lovewhen there's high score, and that makes me happy when you play a lot of leagueslike I do you're, you know you're winning somewhere, so so yeah I had sway off. I had Jamal Williams on some team, so yeah Ienjoyed. I enjoy any high flying game these days and here's one of mystrategies that I put to the test this year, because I've always wondered howthis strategy would work some years. I ended up having to play this strategyabout mid season due injuries, because I always handcuff my studs, but here'sthe theory that I tried out this year in a few test, re draft leagues Idrafted both ends of the shared running back committee, so I've got shares ofboth Jamais and Dandre Swift. Yes, I had to pay up to get Jamal Williams tomake this strategy work. I am both sides of the buffalo bills with single tarry and Moss, and I haveboth sides of the of the jet and Hinds Show in Indianapolis and so far allthree were viable because what happened with Buffalo, they benched one of themand the other guy had the production that worthy of a starting running backin fantasy. But it's a strategy that I don't really recommend yet, but with alot of strategies I like to test them first and this ISS one that I've kindof played with yeah it's when you do that, there's there's a lotof controversy out there on you know the bundance and what died and it's kind of always after the fact.When people declare this or bad, I like the stats and look across the landscape. You know more than justthe tree right. I like to consider the forest, and I think this is one ofthose topics where I think you do need some testing and a broad view, maybemulti years and these kind of things. So I always think that people shouldtest ideas. You know maybe, like I said, find a cheap, evena free league, and just do this kind of thing. Okay, I'm more draft an earlytidy and urn early quarterback or, as you say, I'm going to take the the A and the B of the runningbacks. You just see what happens under your in your hands right? How do youperform you know are trying to apply this just see what what's your good at,and that's why I recommend folks think about like keeping awinter's diary. Yes, just it doesn't have to be like a you know, Warrenpiece novel just make some notes. You know okay this year, I did this, andthis was my result. Just you know have fun. You know this is yearly gamesright each year. You learn something you hopefully apply next year. That'sthe idea is to get better and that's what I would recommend. You know in your learning, in yourscholarship of fantasy football and that's what I tried to promote is youknow, learning the process a little bit and what works for them? Not Everybodycan do everything that others can do...

...find. What you are good at and go forit, and we've always used this dual wide receiver strategy, especially inBest Ball. I loved Tis. I love to have stacks and best ball. I love to have aquarterback two wide receivers from the same team in the tight end and maybeeven the running back from the same team. If there are really strongoffensive team because then, when they blow up you're having a big week inbest ball, but we've tried that, in with wide receivers and it's tested out,I'm very curious to see what the track record is and I'll have some stats atthe end of the year, looking back over two years worth of data to show how youwould escord, if you were able to pull off that strategy, all right all right,professor, it's that magical time of the year where everybody alwaysoverpays for free agents after week. One, I think, is the ultimate ultimateover reaction. recency bias is in play fully, but who are some of the waverwire targets that you're looking at you know, I think- and I don't know ifyou've got the the layest but moster says he's out for the whole season nowyeah. I came across a few minutes ago, so that means they're gonna. What isElijah forgot his last name at San Cisco. I didn't draft him at all. Sofolks, I'm you know I'm the dummy here, but I think people are going to go abat crazy over this they're going to you know, play their fab budget and tryto play yours to getting so. All I can say is I might try and look at Shertesit trade sermon come of the next, maybe whoever, maybe why everybody, maybe whyeverybody's going one way and blowing on their fab? Maybe you play a little bit a lesserplay and try to have the book end, as you say your strategy for that. If mostUS truly out- and you know Wilson is going to be gone for a while, then youknow- and I don't know about hasty, so I think that would be one thing Iwould be doing right now and trying to think who else might be outthere. It depends on your league on who waver ware, I hadn't even thought aboutwaverer. Yet I usually start doing my research and I both my places I playit's Wednesday- is when the wavers run. So it's fortunately not tonight. So oneof the reasons I don't play in those leagues Dennis is because I don't you know, I'musually busy doing other things for my lifestyle and Wednesday night is betterfor my wavers than Tuesday. So what are you looking at yeah and I agree withyou- I love the Wednesday wavers because I usually have a very busyTuesday and I'm usually pretty tired. After staying up for Monday nightfootball morning, radio show host and night time football. The night beforedoes not go well together, and sometimes I'm pretty beat on Tuesdays,but obviously Elijah Mitchell with San foreO is, is the target because, unlike and how about that debut by Tyson Williamsof Baltimore, he looks like he's a real real deal, youl doing yeah, but thatnews came out last week. So in most leagues, he's already been grabbed. If he's still available, though he iscertainly guy that I want to have, but like you, I'm going the opposite way, alot of these things and a couple of my...

...leagues where they do have either thoseearly morning, Wednesday wavers or late night, Tuesday. Dat Wavers I've alreadyput in for Tyson Williams in the few leagues where he escaped not beingpicked up and Elijah Mitchell I've. It's so funny, because I'm like you, Iand here's where you make a prediction and I feel like Nostradamus, sometimesprofessor, because I made the prediction that in San Francisco mostdirt was not the guide to own that you should own the rookie, and I had acouple of people that questioned me about that strategy. They said witchrookie, and I said Oh now you want to get me more specific. I said the theprediction is that the rookie is the one to own, because I wasn't sure whichone I have sermon in a few leagues and I overlooked Elijah Mitchell, it's veryrare of me not to have the later round rookie stashed, so I even had TysonWilliam stashed on a couple of deep dynasty leagues, where I am so weak inrunning back that it made sense to grab a guy who, at the time I grabbed him,was the fourth stringer. I used this strategy last year and ended up withSalvin Ahmad having a couple of good games for me down in Miami and now he'spoised to do the same. If I guess can misses some time again and that's hisstrategy, I always like got it right with Tyson Williams in a few leaguesdid not have any shares of Elijah Mitchell. So in a couple of leagues Ihave been huge amounts. I am a go. Sixty percent or sice O my three agentmoney and in other leagues I've been five bucks. So it's in it's all overthe place. I know I'm not going to get him with the five bucks, but of whatI'm hoping is that people don't realize that it's Wednesday morning at three, am to close that league. So I've got the guy over a few people who have alreadyblown their free agent and bunny leading up to weak one in there. Youwill have to overpay to get Elijah Mitchell. Do I think, he's worth it?Probably not in most leagues, and even with my Tyson Williams grabs. I onlyplayed him in about three of my leagues, which puts the usage at about eight percent for the for the week last week, because I had better likely options toscore points now later on with th those teams duty injuries. I will have to start him and you knowthat's where it is, but I love the tray sermon idea. I might pick up more oftray sermon, yeah, just you know, you know how er for a dollar kind ofthing. You know whatever you know it's. You turn that bid o turn that you knowwaver wire. Why not? I I will in my FLP C leagues I love dollar I'll, find andI'll try to predict. You know down the road who they missed and I'm just stowa dollar in and I'll have a whole list of possibilities, and so I try not to blow a lot of my money,but I may have to this week while I've got the microphone. I wouldalso some of my notes game well from Philadelphia Only JonesNew Orleans round tree from the chargers. Those are running back thatI'm thinking you can get that doughter player to in and you might, you mighthave something here in a few weeks or...

...whatever, and you know, if not you hadat input, you hadn't lost a lot right so but start looking for those kind ofplayers that are injury away even already going in a week to let's thinkyou know, running, backs or fragile in some ways- and you know start lookingat. Who was the number two or three? And in imagine this scenario wherethese people move up and you can have them cheat now yeah? And if you look at the usage,don't look at fantasy points. Look at the opportunities Iopportunities and look at snap counts, yeah and if you see a guy who emergesas the second stringer or even the third stringer in an uneasy situation,those are guys worth grabbing for a flyer. My favorite free agent bid,though I will tell you, is not the one dollar play. It's not even the twodollar play, I believe in the three dollar earn heart play, and it's and itin the theory, is a lot of people. Try to get they'll, say AH nobody's biddingon them. So I'M gonna go zero. Then there's the smart cookies like you thatwill bid one dollar. No one they'll be any of the zero guys. Yes, there arethe smart guys who figure? Oh there's, a smart guy in the League is going tosay a dollar. So I'm going to sing too by saying three I beat out all thesmarties yeah, that's just a joke. Yeah always bid AUTOMAT, thirty one. Thirty, three, thirty,seven yeah yeah. I do that as well. soathing. It's an excellent idea. I agree and toall these but goodies to pick up on the waver ware, if you're really desperateat running back- and I really mean you got to be really desperate at runningback but mark Ingram is still alive. I know we got a lot of usage. Twenty sixcarries last week scoring fourteen points. It's more the carries thatimpresses me because he will be the first down back if they do get into thered, sound and and with Tyron Taylor actually showing he can play and, ofcourse, with one of our favorite guys branded cooks as a wide receiver. He'lldo fairly well, I love cooks, yeah I collected and collected and by the way in groming my snap caryeah. He was, he was the he led, the running backs and snaps, Oh yeah yeahand the other you there only but goody that I love, because you've got a rookie,quarterback and rookies love check down receivers and he showed that he's notdead because he actually was out there for quite a bit of the passing game forNew England. James White is wore grabbing and stashing, and you getreally desperate and you he's number two and snaps yeah big time, big time,correct, yeah yeah, I actually drafted him everywhere. I could in bestead andeverything so I'm not sure what he's available. But if I can find him, I willdefinitely put put that in as well. Yeah agree with it. So, looking ahead to week to this isthe week that I think more mistakes are made in fantasy football based ongetting well, I'm gonna say it screwed in weak.One people end up putting their good players that underperformed in week,one on the bench we do only to see them...

...go off in week to. I have beenoccasionally guilty of that myself over the years week. To is the toughest weekin fantasy football because of that fresh taste in your mouth. It's theonly game that you saw if you let a bitter taste in your mouth you're,going to remember that for a long time. So with that in mind, any boldpredictions week to based on match ups, that you see that you want to exploityeah right now, I'm probably very conservative on weekto actually, because you know what is going on with Green Bay, it's NewOrleans really real. So I actually go opposite. I probably become very little bit moreconservative and maybe yeah- that's just my subconscious, remembering someof the mistakes I made in the past here, but I was surprised at Green Bay and Ijust don't know you know Davanti Adams. How do you you know? I think I'd go ahead and puthim in my line up, but I just mean that's a scared situation. I'm veryconcerned about that. I have a league where I have the choice thisweek. Of course, deck press got is he's gonna play no matter what he's going tobe o guy every week, but I've my other quarterbacks in that league. Well, I'vegot Carson. Wenson he's going to be sitting way on my bench unless it'sreally an emergency bits of super flex, but my other choice is between AaronRogers M and James Winston, and with New Orleans playing against Carolina this week, I am very tempted to play Winston andtake a wait and see I'm Mr Rogers and it shocks me to say this, but I am, I am contemplating benching Aaron Rodgers, which issomething I've never done in fantasy football and dynasty, where I owe himown him. I've never benched him before. I'm really really tempted to do it.This week, they're they're calling for like fortysix forty seven points, so it's above average scoring, but not just insanescoring so add that to your thinking a little bit.You know that makes me kind of back off a littlebit, but I don't have a lot of Aaron Rogers tell the on the truth. I onlyhave him in one league of my fifty something that's my dynasty league. Oh, mygoodness, and I've had him for a few years, and you know you got me and I've got trade lance andthat's the only two quarterbacks I had I just assumed I was okay and so that's I don't have that big of achoice with Rogers this week. Fortunately I would be concerned if Idid, because you get mad week, three of frojust stinkin up again you're going to look crazy and week. Three, Oh and thenthe conspiracy theories about him. I'm Tellin you, he gonna, be there yeah,I'm already thinking that and I hadn't really voiced it, but it's sure sits. It'slike that. Little conspiracy nut with the tinful head over my shoulder of thelittle demon, siner saying you know, he's going to throw this game and it'sjust like. No! No! No, so I don't know...

...man, I'm I'm probably cautious. I wouldprobably play Winston, but I'm just you know it's a toughdecision either way, but it is, but I think Winston I well, I know he's notgoing to throw five touchdowns again. I think he could throw two touchdowns andabout two D. Sixty two, seventy against Carolina and I'll. Take that becausethat's that's a good solid week! Here's here's the thing that I I'm going topoint out when it comes to Aron Rogers last year because of the value he wasand how late people were drafting him. I ended up with Aaron Rogers in seventyplus seventy percent of my re draft leagues, and so I did incredibly wellall season long yeah in tramp in re draft this year I have zero shares ofAaron Rogers Mek me too. It's the same player yeah, but it was a muchdifferent, a d p this year and there were other guys that I valued more where he was going in the drip. Now hegoes far enough in the draft. I would have grabbed him yeah, because I doplay a lot of ten team re draft, where I will grab a quarterback incrediblylate. If I can't get the top three guys and as we explained only fivequarterbacks last year over the last two years, I should say: scored twentyfive or more points in eighty per cent of their games. So there is anadvantage for going for the top guys, but you want to get a top guy is fardown in the draft as you can and I won't draft a quarterback until thethird round and usually not till the fifth round inredraft because they do tend to go late. But if I am going late with aquarterback, I wait for the last of those big percentage guys, and thatmeans I can get Tana Hill. I can, you know, get some other quarterbacks thatare consistent, if not spectacular, but you're going to give away a few pointsat the top. I ended up. You know my most owned quarterback in read draftthis year at about sixty per cent of my leagues as Deck Prescott, because hewas going at such a great bargain. Then I loaded up on deck and I loaded up ondeck in every New Dynasty League that I started this year. He was my number onequarterback off the board, because I knew I couldn't get my homes. So all ofmy upstart re drafts, I did four new redraft legs this year. I must have an unlucky sighed to me because I didn't getbetter than the eighth pick in the first round in any of those four, andone of them was a fourteen team league, and I got him a good number fourteen asmy parent, that SOS tough but I, but you can build a winning team fromanywhere in the DREM. You just have to apply a different strategy, but as longas you're going best value, you're, okay, but dack is a guy that I'mheavily invested in in redraft this year because he was the biggest bargainand every piece of news about his arm. I just I just smiled even wider,because e H, I knew the type of training he was doing. That wasbaseball training related, and I knew that his arm would be just fine forthrowing a football. Forty five times a game when it came to two week one and Iwas right and it worked out yeah I've got a lot of Russell Wilson this yearand about that level may be six or...

...seven then and and it needless to say,I was pleasantly supplied and I guess toter locket surprised me big time. Iwas you know because he's so inconsistent last year. Yes and I played him everywhere, I had him andI you know I look good now, but beforehand I was like wow, I'm reallyrolling the dice here and but I did. I went all in a locket week, one and Idid well, of course I had medcalf in some leagues to, but that was that worked out, but yeah Wilson was probably my number one. The target in redraft this year sowe'll see so heading into week. Two I've got thelock of the week for twenty twenty plus points at running back. Okay, and Iwant to see if you're reading the match up the same way. I am okay because I am going to be starting Ronald Jones Jiner in every singleleague. I have because he has a lock to go off for twenty plus points againstthe Atlanta Falcons Atlanta, fuck yeah and of course today you probably seen it. It's supposedlyhe's back out of the dog house with areas that just came across here thismorning. So you know, if you need to add weight tothat decision, that probably adds it a little more at your Atlanta was kind ofa negative surprise. I really thought they had a plus match up and they justfolded like a cheap suit case. That was not good and I M. I do have too muchmat ride. I guess you, you know at least you think from week one so Idon't know what you're getting there, but that sounds like a good strategy tome. If I had him everywhere, I didn't draft him a lot, but you know I didn'tstay away from him, but I didn't seek him out and that's just kind of the wayyou know it went with with being this year on that. Just letyou know the the before I forget the the top scoring game this week should be the chiefs andthe Ravens, and probably the packers, and the lines are going to be prettypretty good too. So those are some high flying games that you know were to mana rogers. It's everything is a good thing and we'll find out, but against Detroit you know at homed. Youknow he should bounce back and of course, Kansas City should just you know count the Kelsey show shouldcontinue. I think I figured he had at least two or three touchdowns. I did amatchup video. I don't think anybody got to see it. But anyway, if youlisten to me out said probably three touchdowns and I think he's good forone or two for sure, even against the Ravens, so I hated to break yourthought there on Ronald Jones, but I did want to jump that in now. That waswhat I was going to ask. You was the big match up game? That's those is yeahand I'm so glad because that means that not only am I writing. Last week I ownfive shares of Ronald Jones Yeah. I played three and bench two, that's in dynasty in re draft I ownabout twenty per cent shares in Ronald...

Jones and I didn't play a single one ofthem this week. However, all five of mydynasty, Ronald Jones, my Rojo, is coming outthe play, my Jo for Rojo, I'm going Bojo with Rochow and and hearing yourmatch up. I feel really good about both them by Sammy Watkins shares that Iboded last week- and I like him again this week and the third pick would be Tennessee in Seattle. I,like my Russell Wilson there, so I think I'm going to collect some points as well, so thoseare probably the high flying games. You know you never know, but that's whatI'm looking at right now and so I would play lots of lots of players on thoseteams early and often- and just let you know out of fifty threeleagues. I have petro homes. Fourteen yes, so yeah I collected I do have. Ihave two Aaron Rogers one of my dinting another one and but I overdid Matt Ryan.It's my second qb He's, not my first, but I drafted him almost everywhere ismy second one, fifteen of those leagues. So I'm concerned they have to go find somebodyelse for a second yeah. I have a lot of exposure to Maddie ice, because this isan odd numbered year and I thought he was supposed to be great in not numberyears. I'm just kidding folks, I don't believe in that kind of numerology, butI did believe that Atlanta's defense was going to be so bad they're, goingto be behind a lot and I'll tol they're go past and I sumter ave chuck andchuck it and Chucking, but yeah I didn't know the receivers would beducking and ducking and a it was. It was crazy yeah. It was not not good. Rojo. I think I have eman for fifteen leagues as by probablythree or four, so I was able to get him as my three or four plays, so I will behaving to consider him in you know in the leagues that do a lot of flax, and he will be my top pick this week toover perform what he did in week, one because he wasn't here's how bad he wasweak, one that you wouldn't even have had him on your roster. If you're oneof these zero R B theory guys, you would have to be a minus point, sixtheory guy to have them on your team. That's how bad he was last week. Well,professor! As always, I love those match ups, because you can't scorepoints and fantasy football unless the real team score points, and we saw thatlast week. I think that Ravens chiefs game is just going to be a track meetwith all that speed and- and the only thing I will say is Kansas City's defense has been doing alittle better job in week, one that I expected them to do and I'm abig chiefs fan. I had high expectations. They look pretty good in that second AVAGAINST CLEVELAND. They figured something out Yep, I agree and theRavens look to kind of got a little bit porus at the end there with the raiders.So maybe they tired out at to end, so I may still have a handover from thatbeat down. So if you're a KS Fan, they may take them, but I think there'sgonna be a lot of points to do that, though Derek care to was beating themwith one receiver, Darryl Daran Waller,...

...a tight on an ally was no new. That wascoming down, Oh yeah, so that's all! Oh, he had the chiefs. The chiefs have afew more weapons. Yes, I do I'm looking that to be. I'm really happy to see.Baltimore's defense looks so bad because I think it's going to be atrack made. It's going to be fun, you it's fun, good! That's going to be ahalf lime game! Yeah! It's going to be boring to watch well, professor, hasalways great job and breaking down those numbers for us. Thank you so much,Oh you're, welcome Dennis. This is great thanks. Very much love this stuff.This is fun. This is fun! Everybody! Remember it's fun! That's the that's! The first letter infantasy is yes, first letter in fun, so I'd better be fun for the ProfessorJohn Bush, this is Dennis Michael Sin, t Mike saying, Pertini and will catchyou next week.

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